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Kazakhstan vs. Russia: A Fight For Independence
Throughout history, different cultures have been destroyed by invaders and colonization. One of these cultures to get dismantled was Kazakhstan's. Prior to the 20th Century, the people of Kazakhstan had a thriving nomadic way of life. But the society that once moved from place to place by following the seasons and rode horses down the steppe is gone, ruined by the Soviet Union. First taken over by Russia in 1864, it did not gain independence until December 16, 1992. Today, Kazakhstan is a country in Central Asia that was a former Soviet republic. Currently, its border with Russia is 4,750 miles, the longest of any country. Kazakhstan also has a lot of natural resources, including hydrocarbons, uranium, coal, ore, and other rare metals, all of which contribute to a strong economy and make it valuable. Kazakhstan’s GDP is the highest of post-Soviet countries. For a long time, Kazakhstan had been regarded as Russia’s closest ally, even more so than Belarus. During the cold war, Kazakhstan was under the Soviet Union’s direct control, and even after the cold war has remained a security and economic partner with Russia. Kazakhstan has also recognized the need to break away from Russia’s influence, which led to new alliances with other countries in an attempt to decrease reliance on Russia.
Throughout the cold war, Kazakhstan was a republic belonging to the Soviet Union and the effects of the Soviet Union’s control on Kazakhstan are generally negative. Prior to independence, people in Kazakhstan spoke Russian rather than Kazakh, used Russian media, and consumed Russian products. Kazakhstan was very much reliant on Russia. Similarly, Kazakh language and culture was omitted from history books and schools. Today, Russian is an official language of Kazakhstan and more people speak Russian, not Kazakh. Russian is still taught at school and at home, so people learn it before Kazakh. In schools, the Soviet Union controlled Kazakhstan by getting rid of the nomadic way of life. As long as the Soviet Union had control of land, Kazakh people stayed in one place. As a result, they were easier to control. Getting rid of Kazakh culture and teaching the Soviet version of history allowed them to extend their power over Kazakhs. As a matter of fact, Kazakhs did not have a written language until the 1980’s. The written Kazakh language is new; a sizable portion of Kazakhs did not know how to write in their language until very recently. Furthermore, Kazakhs use the Russian alphabet, not their own. By taking away Kazakh language, the Soviets took away culture from Kazakhs, which only contributed to Soviet power. Language is power, and when language is taken away, so is power. The only Kazakh to have power during the cold war era was Dinmukhammad Kunaev, the head of the Kazakh communist party, and only Central Asian voting member of the Politburo of Communist Party of the Soviet Union, the ruling body. During his time in the government, Kunaev laid the foundations for Kazakhstan’s economic diversification. There was major investment in expanding education and infrastructure. Almaty’s green spaces were preserved - one can still see them today. Kunaev’s reforms led to good development of the economy, which provided a stable infrastructure to build on once gaining independence. However, the reforms are an unfriendly reminder for some Kazakhs that they owe their foundations to Russia, their imperial controller. For many Kazakhs, there is no way to address the blank pages of Soviet occupation, especially Stalinist repression. They view his agricultural policies as genocide. Stalin wanted to deliberately kill Kazakhs in order to make room for Russians who would collectivize agriculture. Half of all Kazakh households were killed, along with more than 80 percent of livestock that once served as a foundation for the economy. After collectivization came a second blood bath: the political purges of the 1930’s. In Kazakhstan, there is a lot of pain and grief that comes from the destruction of the rural population during collectivization, as well as mass killings from the political purges. Today, it is impossible to find a family who is untouched by the collectivization and purges. A sense of communal grief unites Kazakhs. This idea of unity is a very complicated emotion because the feeling of cohesion comes from genocide. But, the Soviet Union’s destruction of Kazakhstan did unite its population, leading to independence.
Throughout the 1990’s, Kazakhstan was unnervingly loyal to Russia, which was best for Kazakhstan because it was the only way to preserve their sovereignty. In the late 1980’s, Kazakhstan’s leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, rose to power within the Communist Party because he wanted to preserve the Soviet Union with the economic, cultural, and political interests of the republics - in particular Kazakhstan in mind. He wanted to help developing nations while preserving the Soviet Union. Nazarbeyev thought the Soviet Union would help Kazakhstan become a country as long as it continued to benefit Russia. One of the first agreements between Russia and Kazakhstan was the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). This pipeline started operating in 2001 and connects Tengiz, a western province in Atyrau, home to Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields, with Novorossiysl, a Russian port in the Black Sea. The CPC consists of many international investors including multiple Russian companies, such as Lukoil, Rosneft, and Transneft. In return for allowing Kazakhstan to transport 80 percent of its oil through their country, Russia gets a discount, meaning they can buy the oil at a lower cost than other countries. Oil is the majority of Kazakhstan’s GDP ; oil transport, especially the CPC, is vital for the economy. Kazakhstan thought Russia would be a good source for economic help, and it was. The CPC helped Kazakhstan get on its feet. Furthermore, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, saw Kazakhstan could be a valuable economic and security partner. For example, Kazakhstan signed a collective security agreement with Russia in May 1992, and is an active member of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), also initiated by Russia. The arrangements between Kazakhstan and Russia that were formed in the 1990’s are still in place today, which suggests those agreements were important. Both Kazakhstan and Russia wanted stability for the region, and Russia could provide it. Those security agreements were vital to Kazakhstan’s independence because they ensured Russia would protect Central Asian stability and also respect Kazakhstan’s sovereignty. By allying itself with Russia, Kazakhstan proved to be loyal, which prevented Russia from invading. The partnership with Russia contributed to Kazakhstan’s economic development, enabling it to gain international recognition.
The war in Ukraine permanently affected Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia because Kazakhstan recognized that Russia was a very bad economic and security partner. For example, western sanctions caused the ruble to decrease 40 percent in value, which in turn caused the Kazakh tenge to decrease 20 percent one month into the war. The decrease in value of the tenge caused very high inflation, even higher than the transition from Soviet rule in the 1990’s. In Kazakhstan, sugar and vegetables have been hit hard. Food inflation was over 25 percent. Kazakhstan was tied too closely to Russia, and so Russia began to lose influence. In addition, Russia was not a good provider of regional security in Central Asia . When deploying troops, they were sent to Ukraine. Russia did not care about its former republics like it claimed and was not keeping Kazakhstan safe. Many people in Kazakhstan began to feel dissatisfied with their northern neighbor. Currently, 23 percent of 18-24 year olds in Kazakhstan support Ukraine while six percent support Russia. On the other hand, 14 percent of Kazakhs over 60 support Ukraine while 34 percent support Russia. The older generation grew up in the Soviet Union and is not used to challenging their dominance. But the younger generation lives in an independent country and does not accept Russian rule. They know more about Soviet Kazakhstan, including the forced settlement of nomads in the 1920’s and Asharshylyk, the Kazakh famine of the 1930’s, which gets little representation in history. The younger generation is able to empathize with Ukraine, not Russia. Loyalty in Kazakhstan is changing along a generational divide. Younger Kazakhs want to become closer to the west, signaling the desire to break away from Russia. The government, run by older elites, has also stopped unconditionally supporting Russia. They sent yurts to Ukraine in order to help Ukrainians who did not have enough energy. The Kazakh government organized protests in Almaty to support Ukraine. The Kazakh government has chosen to break away from Russia, which has caused fissures in their relationship. In July of 2022, Kazakhstan offered to send the EU more oil and refused to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk. As a result, Russia closed the CPC five times. Despite this, Kazakhstan has realized that it can oppose Russia while maintaining sovereignty. The war in Ukraine has caused Kazakhstan to look for other allies, which angers Russia. This willingness to take risks and oppose Russia is a change from the past.
Although Kazakhstan has formed new partnerships with different countries in order to counter Russia, these new relationships are very dangerous and should be treated with caution. China, for example, has prioritized improving relations with Kazakhstan. Xi Jinping’s first visit after Covid was to Kazakhstan. During the visit, both countries pledged “mutual support on issues of sovereignty, national security, regional integrity”. China will uphold Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, meaning that, if Russia invades, China will support Kazakhstan with troops and weapons. This support already goes against Russia’s threats to invade Kazakhstan and would widen the conflict, something Russia does not want. Russia is not interested in provoking China, even though both countries have competing interests in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The new relationship with China will protect Kazakhstan against Russia, which some Kazakhs support and some Kazakhs are scared of. After all, China, just like Russia, has promised to uphold regional integrity and has formed economic agreements with Kazakhstan. Is Kazakhstan exchanging one controller for another? In addition to China, Kazakhstan has also strengthened ties with Turkey, Iran, and other gulf countries. Turkey will produce drones for Kazakhstan and the countries will share intelligence. In addition, President Tokayev has visited Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, where they discussed investment and infrastructure to stop dependence on Russia. But these ties could be hazardous. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia are extreme dictatorships that repress human rights. Turkey struggles to hold fair elections, and Qatar is home to the political base of terrorist groups like Hamas. Kazakhstan does not want to form relationships with democracies, because it is still an authoritarian regime. Furthermore, Kazakhstan has been receptive to a pipeline that would transport oil through Afghanistan and Iran to Turkmenistan. While this pipeline could reduce reliance on Russia, it would be built in partnership with three dictatorships, which would be a bad influence on Kazakhstan - a country still moving (at a glacial pace) toward democracy. Is Kazakhstan’s government purposely prioritizing partnerships with dictators? While Kazakhstan’s new alliances could help it break away from Russia, they can also be dangerous. Kazakhstan is trapped - its relationship with Russia is one of oppression, while the other nations it has partnered with are dictatorships.
Although Kazakhstan has been reluctant to separate from Russia, it is slowly withdrawing from the Soviet Union’s influence. From 1945-1991, Kazakhstan had no sovereignty, and the remnants of Soviet rule, good and bad, are still felt. After 1991, when Kazakhstan gained independence, it chose to remain close to Russia believing that the partnership would be beneficial. However, the war in Ukraine caused Kazakhstan to see that Russia was not a reliable security partner, which led to new relationships with other countries. These new relationships would allow Kazakhstan to become its own country free of anyone's influence. For much of its time, Kazakhstan has been stuck between one bad choice and another bad choice. Currently, the world does not acknowledge the choices that Kazakhstan was forced to make, and even more tragically, the genocides against Kazakhs are largely unknown. Even in Kazakhstan, there is no collective memory of their history. Many families exterminated in the genocides have no descendants, so no one remembers who they were. Despite the destruction, many older people still support Russia, choosing to forget their cultural decimation. This forgetfulness of mass murder is dangerous. Learning from the past in order to improve the future is important, but if the world continues to ignore Kazakh history, its neighbors, like Russia or China, can invade once more. History could easily repeat itself, leaving Kazakhstan even more isolated and weak.
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Once a nomadic state, Kazakhstan, a country in Central Asia, is a nation with cities and villages. The impact of the Soviet Union has left its mark on Kazakhstan, and even today, the country has no clear path forward.